Forecasts for June 2024 (Figure 3) indicate an increased chance of rainfall within the range of average to below average in the states of (Blue Nile, East, and West, and Central Darfur, and the western parts of West Kordofan), and above climatic averages in the states of South Kordofan and West Kordofan.

(A) Average model dates for the start of the rainy season (June- September) 2024, (B) The climatic average for the start date of the season (June - September) 2024

A normal start to the rainy season is expected this year (June-September) 2024 (Figure: 7, 8): in most states of Sudan, with relatively early starts in some scattered areas in several states and relatively late starts in West and Central Darfur.

The results of the analysis of the standardized precipitation index for the period from the beginning of June to the end of September 2024 indicates moderate moisture conditions during this season in Sudan.

Figure 10: (A) Deviations from the model average for the duration of wet spell periods after the start of the June-September 2024 season, (B) The model average for the longest initial wet spell after the start, (C) Deviations from the model average for the start of wet spell periods after the start of the June-September 2024 season, (D) Dates of the longest peak wet spell after the start of the June-September 2024 rainy season.

Figure 11: (A) Deviations from the model average for the duration of dry spell during the June-September 2024 season, (B) The model average for the first longest dry spells after the start of the June-September 2024 rainy season, (C) Deviations from the model average for the duration of dry spells after the start of the June-September 2024 season, (D) The model average for the dates of the first dry spells after the start of the June-September 2024 rainy season.

Figure 1: Climatic Averages of Rainfall for Different Regions of Sudan

أ- أشارت توقعات حالة البحار العالمية والمحيط الهندي وهي من العوامل األساسية المؤثرة على

المناخ الموسمي إلى انتقالها من حالة إرتفاع درجة حرارة سطح المحيطات اإلستوائية أعلى من

المتوسط )ظاهرة النينو( إلى إلى حالة التعادل، و ترتبط ظاهرة النينو بشح األمطار وحاالت

الجفاف في مناطق دول شمال القرن األفريقي بما فيها السودان، كما ،أشارت التوقعات

إلى انتقال حالة التعادل إلى حالة إنخفاض درجة حرارة سطح المحيطات اإلستوائية أقل من

المتوسط )النينا( حتى نهاية صيف هذا العام، وترتبط ظاهرة الالنينا بحاالت الرطوبة العالية

وهطول األمطار الغزيرة )تختلف درجة الرطوبة وكميات األمطار حسب قوة الظاهرة(.

ب- كما أشارت توقعات حالة المحيط الهندي إلى إرتفاع درجة حرارة غرب المحيط الهندي

أعلى من المتوسط، وانخفاضها أقل من المتوسط في شرق المحيط وهي الحالة الموجبة للمحيط

الهندي، تتحول هذه إلى حالة التعادل بنهاية الموسم، مما قد يدعم هطول أمطار غزيرة في شمال

وشرق القرن األفريقي بما في ذلك السودان.ج- خالل هذا الموسم يتوقع هطول أمطار أعلى من المعدالت المناخية بنسب متفاوتة في معظم

واليات السودان.

د- كذلك يتوقع حدوث درجات حرارة سطحية أعلى من المعدالت المناخية بنسب عالية، تزداد

درجات الحرارة تجاه شمال البالد لتصل أعالها في شرق البالد)والية البحر األحمر(، شمال

البالد وشمال غرب البالد)واليات الشمالية، نهر النيل، شمال دارفور(.

ه- يتوقع حالة رطوبة في حدود المعدالت المناخية إلى أعلى قليال في معظم واليات السودان

و- كما يتوقع بداية طبيعية لهذا الموسم )يونيو- سبتمبر(2024م، كذلك يتوقع أن يتحرك حزام

المطر شماال ليستقر في مناطق وسط البالد بداية شهر سبتمبر.

ز- سوف تعمل الهيئة على تحديث هذا التوقع شهريا ونشر أي مستجدات تطرأ عليه.

ط-أعلى درجات المتوقعة لهذا الموسم في شهر )يونيو ويوليو( في واليات البحر األحمر، نهر

النيل، الشمالية وشمال دارفور وأدناها خالل شهري أغسطس وسبتمبر(، في واليات القضارف،

كسال، الخرطوم والنيل األبيض.

Forecasts for July 2024 (Figure 4) indicate an increased chance of rainfall within the range of climatic average to below average in the states of (Blue Nile, the extreme south of South Kordofan, and the western parts of South Darfur and West Darfur) and above climatic averages with a 40-70% probability in the remaining states of the country.

Forecasts for August 2024 (Figure 5) indicate an increased chance of rainfall within the range of average to below average in the states of (West and Central Darfur, and the south of Blue Nile) and above climatic averages with a 40-70% probability in all other states of the country.

Forecasts for September 2024 (Figure 6) indicate an increased chance of rainfall within the range of average to below average in the states of (West Kordofan, Central, and West Darfur), and within the range of climatic averages and above climatic averages with a 40-70% probability in all other states of the country.

8.1. June 2024:

During this month, there is a (60-90%) probability that the average temperature will be higher than the climatological average in most states of Sudan, and a (90-95%) probability that it will be higher than the climatological average in Red Sea State, Northern State, River Nile State, and North Darfur State. June 2024 is expected to be the hottest month of the season (see Figure 13).

8.2. July 2024:

During this month, there is a (60-90%) probability that the average temperature will be higher than the climatological average in the states of Red Sea, River Nile, Northern and North Darfur, and a (40-60%) probability that it will be higher than the climatological average in the rest of Sudan's states (see Figure 13). The states of Gedaref, the southern parts of Kassala, Sennar, and White Nile will have the lowest temperatures during this month.

8.3. August 2024:

During this month (see Figure 13), there is a (60-90%) probability that the average temperature will be higher than the climatological average in the extreme north of the states of Red Sea, River Nile, Northern, and North Darfur. There is also a (40-60%) probability that it will be higher than the climatological average in the states of Blue Nile, East, South and Central Darfur, the southern regions of South and West Kordofan, the Red Sea and River Nile states, the central regions of North Kordofan and North Darfur, and within the normal to lower range in the states of Kassala, Gedaref, Sennar, Gezira, White Nile and Khartoum.The northern parts of South and West Kordofan and South Darfur are expected to have temperatures within the climatological average.

8.4. September 2024:

During this month (see Figure 13), there is a (60-90%) probability that the average temperature will be higher than the climatological average in the extreme north of the states of Red Sea, River Nile, Northern, and North Darfur. There is also a (40-60%) probability that it will be higher than the climatological average in the states of Blue Nile, East, South and Central Darfur, the southern regions of South and West Kordofan, the Red Sea and River Nile states, the central regions of North Kordofan and North Darfur, and within the normal to lower range in the states of Kassala, Gedaref, Sennar, Gezira, White Nile and Khartoum.

The northern parts of South and West Kordofan and South Darfur are expected to have temperatures within the climatological average. June is expected to be the hottest month of the season followed by July. August is expected to be the coolest month followed by September.

Gedaref State is expected to be the coolest state in Sudan during this season.